Short and Sweet – UF vs. Vandy

I want to apologize for not being able to get a Gator post out this week. It was a very busy week and “The Game of the Century” post took up some time on Thursday. None the less, I wanted to at least give you something before the high noon kickoff today.

With ZERO wins in October, Florida is on it’s worse losing skid since 1988 and the Vandy game has become quite important for this team to just become bowl eligible (2nd longest bowl streak in the nation)…Wow, I never thought I would say that…I digress. I know it sounds like excuses when you hear people say that there isn’t any talent and the cupboard is bare, but it’s the truth. We all know that recruiting is the life blood of any college program and from he outside looking in, Florida has put together some stellar recruiting classes, but when you dig a little deeper that really isn’t the case.

The 2008 recruiting class should be the backbone of this years team. These guys should be your leaders as seniors or redshirt juniors. Florida brought in 22 players that year. Of those 22, only half are still on the team and you have 5 starters and a kicker. In 2009, Florida only signed 17 players. They have 12 of those players remaining and 6 of your starters. The 2010 class, which was the #1 recruiting class in the nation, brought in 27 players and just 1 and a half seasons later 9 of those players are no longer on the team. So from 2008-2010, Florida brought in 66 players. These 66 players are expected to be the nucleus of your team. Of those 66, Florida has lost 25 of them, that is 38% of the players. Show me any other team with that kind of attrition. The good thing about this is that Muschamp will be able to bring in as many of the type players he wants and despite the on field results, Florida is putting together quite the recruiting class.

Vandy is a very scrappy team. Despite being clearly out manned, they have taken Georgia and Arkansas to the last minute and really should have beaten Arkansas. They are well coached and play inspired football.

Sadly enough, statistically speaking these two teams are almost a mirror image of each other. They are eerily close to each other in almost every statistical category outside of field goals and turnover margin. Florida is tops in the SEC in FGs made at 17-19, while Vandy is last being just 4-7 (they missed a 27 yard game tieing FG at the end of expiration last week against Arkansas). On the other hand, Florida is dead last in the SEC in turnover margin at -1 while Vandy is middle of the pack. Florida has only gotten 8 turnovers all year long and 4 of those came against Kentucky.

Prediction:

UF – 38

Vandy – 14

In a game where there isn’t much to be excited for, I am expecting Florida to come out and roll Vandy. I know it doesn’t seem likely and I may just be a crazy homer,  but I think Florida finds a way to bounce back. I think they get the lead early and never look back. My predictions is that despite how bad their turnover margin has been thus far this season, Florida will win the battle today. In fact, they will get 3 turnovers. My other prediction is that Michael Taylor will be the leading tackler on defense.

Other Predictions:

After a 4-1 week last week, I am now proudly 29-15 on the year against the spread. If I was a betting man, that would be some major mulah!!

• Michigan at Iowa – Michigan is a 4 point favorite on the road. I don’t think that’s enough. I think they beat the Hawkeyes by at least a touchdown.
• Texas A&M at Oklahoma – Oklahoma being just under a 2 TD favorite at home worked for me last week and I’ll take them again to cover the 13.5 points.
• Kansas St. at Oklahoma St. – Oklahoma St. is a 3 touchdown favorite. That is a whole lot of points against a one loss team. I’m going to go with Bill Snyder and think he keeps it closer than 21.
• South Carolina at Arkansas – Arkansas is a 5 point favorite and I am going to pick them to cover against a Spurrier offense that is really struggling.
• LSU at Alabama – I already gave you my prediction for the game in “The Game of the Century” post, but since LSU is  a 5 point favorite and I think this is a 3 point game, I am going with LSU.